Forecasting for Renewable Energy

This demo predicts power generation, load demand and electricity prices for Spain in 2018 using four years' worth of historical weather, generation, price and load data. We forecast five targets on a 24-hour-ahead basis:

  • Wind onshore generation
  • Solar generation
  • Load demand
  • Residual load
  • Day-ahead price

Residual load is calculated as the backup gap between demand and renewable generation. Four forecasting models were evaluated: DeepAR, Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs), PatchTST and a Stacking Ensemble. The Stacking Ensemble produced the lowest error across all five targets, and its results are shown below. The Variables page shows which weather measurements most influence each target, and the Algorithms page provides an overview of the models used in the research.

Predictions

Wind Onshore

MAE: 501 MWRMSE: 688 MWMAPE: 12.9%

Solar

MAE: 204 MWRMSE: 302 MWMAPE: 139.3%

Load Demand

MAE: 649 MWRMSE: 829 MWMAPE: 2.3%

Residual Load

MAE: 651 MWRMSE: 829 MWMAPE: 3.1%

Price

MAE: 4.58 EUR/MWhRMSE: 6.2 EUR/MWhMAPE: 8.2%